Sunday, January 13, 2013

SPC Tornado Watch 3

WW0003 SAW
Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
    SAW3     WW 3 TORNADO AR MO 122320Z - 130600Z    AXIS..70 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..    70SSW HOT/HOT SPRINGS AR/ - 20NNE ARG/WALNUT RIDGE AR/    ..AVIATION COORDS.. 60NM E/W /25E TXK - 19NNE ARG/    HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1 INCH. WIND GUSTS..65 KNOTS.    MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23040.        LAT...LON 33529477 36389205 36388952 33529234        THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA.  FOR A    COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS    FOR WOU3.     

Watch 3 Status Report Messages:

 STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 3  VALID 130350Z - 130440Z  SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE GGG TO 30 ENE TXK TO 10 SE HOT TO 20 NNW LIT TO 10 ESE BVX TO 20 ESE POF.  FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 20  ..JEWELL..01/13/13  ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...SHV...  &&  STATUS REPORT FOR WT 3   SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS   ARC001-011-013-019-021-025-027-031-037-039-045-053-055-057-059- 067-069-073-079-085-091-093-095-099-103-111-117-119-123-125-139- 145-147-130440-  AR  .    ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE  ARKANSAS	     BRADLEY		 CALHOUN	      CLARK		     CLAY		 CLEVELAND	      COLUMBIA	     CRAIGHEAD		 CROSS		      DALLAS		     FAULKNER		 GRANT		      GREENE		     HEMPSTEAD		 HOT SPRING	      JACKSON 	     JEFFERSON		 LAFAYETTE	      LINCOLN 	     LONOKE		 MILLER 	      MISSISSIPPI	     MONROE		 NEVADA 	      OUACHITA	     POINSETT		 PRAIRIE	      PULASKI 	     ST. FRANCIS	 SALINE 	      UNION		     WHITE		 WOODRUFF	      $$   MOC069-155-130440-  MO  .    MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE  DUNKLIN 	     PEMISCOT		  $$   THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. $$  STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 3  VALID 130215Z - 130340Z  SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW TXK TO 25 ESE DEQ TO 25 W HOT TO 20 SSE RUE TO 20 WSW BVX TO 20 WNW ARG TO 5 WNW POF.  ..JEWELL..01/13/13  ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...SHV...  &&  STATUS REPORT FOR WT 3   SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS   ARC001-011-013-019-021-023-025-027-029-031-037-039-045-051-053- 055-057-059-061-063-067-069-073-075-079-081-085-091-093-095-097- 099-103-105-109-111-117-119-121-123-125-139-145-147-130340-  AR  .    ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE  ARKANSAS	     BRADLEY		 CALHOUN	      CLARK		     CLAY		 CLEBURNE	      CLEVELAND	     COLUMBIA		 CONWAY 	      CRAIGHEAD	     CROSS		 DALLAS 	      FAULKNER	     GARLAND		 GRANT		      GREENE		     HEMPSTEAD		 HOT SPRING	      HOWARD		     INDEPENDENCE	 JACKSON	      JEFFERSON	     LAFAYETTE		 LAWRENCE	      LINCOLN 	     LITTLE RIVER	 LONOKE 	      MILLER		     MISSISSIPPI	 MONROE 	      MONTGOMERY	     NEVADA		 OUACHITA	      PERRY		     PIKE		 POINSETT	      PRAIRIE 	     PULASKI		 RANDOLPH	      ST. FRANCIS	     SALINE		 UNION		      WHITE		     WOODRUFF		  $$   MOC069-155-130340-  MO  .    MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE  DUNKLIN 	     PEMISCOT		  $$   TXC037-130340-  TX  .    TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE  BOWIE		      $$   THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. $$  STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 3  VALID 130110Z - 130240Z  SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE PRX TO 40 NE DEQ TO 5 WSW RUE TO 25 SSE FLP TO 35 ESE UNO.  FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 18  ..JEWELL..01/13/13  ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...SHV...  &&  STATUS REPORT FOR WT 3   SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS   ARC001-011-013-019-021-023-025-027-029-031-037-039-045-051-053- 055-057-059-061-063-065-067-069-073-075-079-081-085-091-093-095- 097-099-103-105-109-111-115-117-119-121-123-125-133-135-137-139- 141-145-147-149-130240-  AR  .    ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE  ARKANSAS	     BRADLEY		 CALHOUN	      CLARK		     CLAY		 CLEBURNE	      CLEVELAND	     COLUMBIA		 CONWAY 	      CRAIGHEAD	     CROSS		 DALLAS 	      FAULKNER	     GARLAND		 GRANT		      GREENE		     HEMPSTEAD		 HOT SPRING	      HOWARD		     INDEPENDENCE	 IZARD		      JACKSON 	     JEFFERSON		 LAFAYETTE	      LAWRENCE	     LINCOLN		 LITTLE RIVER	      LONOKE		     MILLER		 MISSISSIPPI	      MONROE		     MONTGOMERY 	 NEVADA 	      OUACHITA	     PERRY		 PIKE		      POINSETT	     POPE		 PRAIRIE	      PULASKI 	     RANDOLPH		 ST. FRANCIS	      SALINE		     SEVIER		 SHARP		      STONE		     UNION		 VAN BUREN	      WHITE		     WOODRUFF		 YELL		      $$   MOC069-155-130240-  MO  .    MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE  DUNKLIN 	     PEMISCOT		  $$   TXC037-130240-  TX  .    TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE  BOWIE		      $$   THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. $$  
WW0003 Probability
Note: ?Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes

Mod (40%)

Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes

Mod (40%)

Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events

Mod (30%)

Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots

Mod (30%)

Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events

Low (

Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches

Low (

Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events

High (70%)

For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch (listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster. The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2% to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities), "Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%. High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of an increased threat for a particular event.

Source: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0003.html

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